Durban Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.Anti-spam check. Do not fill this in! === Climate === Durban has a [[humid subtropical climate]] ([[Köppen climate classification]] ''Cfa''), with hot, humid summers and warm, moderately dry winters, which are snow and frost-free. Durban has an annual rainfall of {{convert|1009|mm|in|1}}. The average temperature in summer ranges around {{convert|24|C|F}}, while in winter the average temperature is {{convert|17|C|F}}. {{Weather box |location = Durban (1961–1990) |metric first = Y |single line = Y |Jan record high C = 36.2 |Feb record high C = 33.9 |Mar record high C = 34.8 |Apr record high C = 36.0 |May record high C = 33.8 |Jun record high C = 35.7 |Jul record high C = 33.8 |Aug record high C = 35.9 |Sep record high C = 36.9 |Oct record high C = 40.0 |Nov record high C = 33.5 |Dec record high C = 35.9 |year record high C = 40.0 |Jan avg record high C = 32.6 |Feb avg record high C = 31.7 |Mar avg record high C = 32.0 |Apr avg record high C = 30.4 |May avg record high C = 30.2 |Jun avg record high C = 28.8 |Jul avg record high C = 28.9 |Aug avg record high C = 29.7 |Sep avg record high C = 30.3 |Oct avg record high C = 30.5 |Nov avg record high C = 30.6 |Dec avg record high C = 32.0 |year avg record high C = 34.5 |Jan high C = 27.8 |Feb high C = 28.0 |Mar high C = 27.7 |Apr high C = 26.1 |May high C = 24.5 |Jun high C = 23.0 |Jul high C = 22.6 |Aug high C = 22.8 |Sep high C = 23.3 |Oct high C = 24.0 |Nov high C = 25.2 |Dec high C = 26.9 |year high C = 25.2 |Jan mean C = 24.1 |Feb mean C = 24.3 |Mar mean C = 23.7 |Apr mean C = 21.6 |May mean C = 19.1 |Jun mean C = 16.6 |Jul mean C = 16.5 |Aug mean C = 17.7 |Sep mean C = 19.2 |Oct mean C = 20.1 |Nov mean C = 21.4 |Dec mean C = 23.1 |year mean C = 20.6 |Jan low C = 21.1 |Feb low C = 21.1 |Mar low C = 20.3 |Apr low C = 17.4 |May low C = 13.8 |Jun low C = 10.6 |Jul low C = 10.5 |Aug low C = 12.5 |Sep low C = 15.3 |Oct low C = 16.8 |Nov low C = 18.3 |Dec low C = 20.0 |year low C = 16.5 |Jan avg record low C = 17.3 |Feb avg record low C = 17.1 |Mar avg record low C = 16.1 |Apr avg record low C = 12.1 |May avg record low C = 8.7 |Jun avg record low C = 5.9 |Jul avg record low C = 5.8 |Aug avg record low C = 7.3 |Sep avg record low C = 10.0 |Oct avg record low C = 11.9 |Nov avg record low C = 13.8 |Dec avg record low C = 15.9 |year avg record low C = 5.3 |Jan record low C = 14.0 |Feb record low C = 13.3 |Mar record low C = 11.6 |Apr record low C = 8.6 |May record low C = 4.9 |Jun record low C = 3.5 |Jul record low C = 2.6 |Aug record low C = 2.6 |Sep record low C = 4.5 |Oct record low C = 8.3 |Nov record low C = 10.3 |Dec record low C = 11.8 |year record low C = 2.6 |rain colour = green |Jan rain mm = 134 |Feb rain mm = 113 |Mar rain mm = 120 |Apr rain mm = 73 |May rain mm = 59 |Jun rain mm = 38 |Jul rain mm = 39 |Aug rain mm = 62 |Sep rain mm = 73 |Oct rain mm = 98 |Nov rain mm = 108 |Dec rain mm = 102 |year rain mm = 1019 |unit precipitation days = 0.1 mm |Jan precipitation days = 15.2 |Feb precipitation days = 12.9 |Mar precipitation days = 12.6 |Apr precipitation days = 9.2 |May precipitation days = 6.8 |Jun precipitation days = 4.5 |Jul precipitation days = 4.9 |Aug precipitation days = 7.1 |Sep precipitation days = 11.0 |Oct precipitation days = 15.1 |Nov precipitation days = 16.0 |Dec precipitation days = 15.0 |year precipitation days = 130.3 |Jan humidity = 80 |Feb humidity = 80 |Mar humidity = 80 |Apr humidity = 78 |May humidity = 76 |Jun humidity = 72 |Jul humidity = 72 |Aug humidity = 75 |Sep humidity = 77 |Oct humidity = 78 |Nov humidity = 79 |Dec humidity = 79 |year humidity = 77 |Jan sun = 184.0 |Feb sun = 178.8 |Mar sun = 201.6 |Apr sun = 206.4 |May sun = 223.6 |Jun sun = 224.9 |Jul sun = 230.4 |Aug sun = 217.0 |Sep sun = 173.3 |Oct sun = 169.4 |Nov sun = 166.1 |Dec sun = 189.9 |year sun = 2365.4 |source 1 = World Meteorological Organization<ref name="WMO">{{cite web | url = https://worldweather.wmo.int/en/city.html?cityId=137 | title = World Weather Information Service—Durban (1961-1990 period) | publisher = World Meteorological Organization | others= provided by South African weather service | access-date = 21 November 2013}}</ref> |source 2 = NOAA (sun, extremes and humidity)<ref name="NOAA">{{cite web | url = ftp://ftp.atdd.noaa.gov/pub/GCOS/WMO-Normals/TABLES/REG__I/UA/68588.TXT | title = Durban/Louis Both Climate Normals 1961–1990 | publisher = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | access-date = 21 November 2013}}</ref> |date=August 2010 }} ==== Climate change ==== A 2019 paper published in [[PLOS One]] estimated that under [[Representative Concentration Pathway#RCP 4.5|Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5]], a "moderate" scenario of [[climate change]] where global warming reaches ~{{convert|2.5-3|C-change|F-change}} by 2100, the climate of Durban in the year 2050 would most closely resemble the current climate of [[Kigali]]. The annual temperature would increase by {{convert|1.7|C-change|F-change}}, and the temperature of the coldest month by {{convert|1.8|C-change|F-change}}, while the temperature of the warmest month would be {{convert|0.5|C-change|F-change}} lower.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bastin |first1=Jean-Francois |last2=Clark |first2=Emily |last3=Elliott |first3=Thomas |last4=Hart |first4=Simon |last5=van den Hoogen |first5=Johan |last6=Hordijk |first6=Iris |last7=Ma |first7=Haozhi |last8=Majumder |first8=Sabiha |last9=Manoli |first9=Gabriele |last10=Maschler |first10=Julia |last11=Mo |first11=Lidong |last12=Routh |first12=Devin |last13=Yu |first13=Kailiang |last14=Zohner |first14=Constantin M. |last15=Thomas W. |first15=Crowther |title=Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues |journal=PLOS ONE |date=10 July 2019 |volume=14 |issue=7 |at=S2 Table. Summary statistics of the global analysis of city analogues. |doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0217592 |pmid=31291249 |pmc=6619606 |bibcode=2019PLoSO..1417592B |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://crowtherlab.pageflow.io/cities-of-the-future-visualizing-climate-change-to-inspire-action |title=Cities of the future: visualizing climate change to inspire action |at=Current vs. future cities |access-date=8 January 2023}}</ref> According to [[Climate Action Tracker]], the current warming trajectory appears consistent with {{convert|2.7|C-change|F-change}}, which closely matches RCP 4.5.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/ |title=The CAT Thermometer |access-date=8 January 2023}}</ref> Moreover, according to the 2022 [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]], Durban is one of 12 major African cities ([[Abidjan]], [[Alexandria]], [[Algiers]], [[Cape Town]], [[Casablanca]], [[Dakar]], [[Dar es Salaam]], Durban, [[Lagos]], [[Lomé]], [[Luanda]] and [[Maputo]]) which would be the most severely affected by future [[sea level rise]]. It estimates that they would collectively sustain cumulative damages of USD 65 billion under RCP 4.5 and USD 86.5 billion for the high-emission scenario RCP 8.5 by the year 2050. Additionally, RCP 8.5 combined with the hypothetical impact from [[marine ice sheet instability]] at high levels of warming would involve up to 137.5 billion USD in damages, while the additional accounting for the "low-probability, high-damage events" may increase aggregate risks to USD 187 billion for the "moderate" RCP4.5, USD 206 billion for RCP8.5 and USD 397 billion under the high-end ice sheet instability scenario.<ref>Trisos, C.H., I.O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N.P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen 2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf Chapter 9: Africa]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability] [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 2043–2121</ref> Since sea level rise would continue for about 10,000 years under every scenario of climate change, future costs of sea level rise would only increase, especially without adaptation measures.<ref>{{cite book |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf |title=Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |date=August 2021 |publisher=IPCC |page=TS14 |access-date=12 November 2021}}</ref> Summary: Please note that all contributions to Christianpedia may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. 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