Future Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.Anti-spam check. Do not fill this in! ==Futures studies== [[File: Stanford Torus interior.jpg|thumb|upright|Project of an orbital colony [[Stanford torus]], painted by Donald E. Davis]] {{Main|Futures studies}} Futures studies or futurology is the science, art, and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. Futures studies seek to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. A key part of this process is understanding the potential future impact of decisions made by individuals, organizations, and governments. Leaders use the results of such work to assist in decision-making. {{blockquote|Take hold of the future or the future will take hold of you.|[[Patrick Dixon]], author of ''[[Futurewise (book)|Futurewise]]''}} Futures is an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. Modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures. Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. Futures studies do not generally include the work of economists who forecast movements of interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops operational plans for preferred futures with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. But plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate and be robust to possible future events, are part of a major subdiscipline of futures studies called strategic foresight. The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means. At the same time, it does seek to understand the model's such groups use and the interpretations they give to these models. ===Forecasting=== {{Main|Forecasting}} Forecasting is the process of [[Estimation|estimating]] outcomes in uncontrolled situations. Forecasting is applied in many areas, such as [[weather forecasting]], [[earthquake prediction]], [[transport planning]], and [[labour market]] planning. Due to the element of the unknown, [[risk]] and [[uncertainty]] are central to forecasting. Statistically based forecasting employs [[time series]] with [[cross-sectional data|cross-sectional]] or [[longitudinal study|longitudinal]] data. [[Econometric]] forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast. Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions, and probability estimates, as in the case of the [[Delphi method]], [[scenario planning|scenario building]], and [[simulation]]s. Prediction is similar to forecasting but is used more generally, for instance, to also include baseless claims on the future. Organized efforts to [[prediction|predict]] the future began with practices like [[astrology]], [[haruspicy]], and [[augury]]. These are all considered to be [[pseudoscience]] today, evolving from the human desire to know the future in advance. Modern efforts such as [[futures studies]] attempt to predict technological and societal trends, while more ancient practices, such as weather forecasting, have benefited from [[Scientific modeling|scientific]] and [[causal model]]ling. Despite the development of [[cognition|cognitive]] instruments for the comprehension of future, the [[stochastic process|stochastic]] and [[Chaos theory|chaotic]] nature of many natural and social processes has made precise forecasting of the future elusive. Summary: Please note that all contributions to Christianpedia may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. If you do not want your writing to be edited mercilessly, then do not submit it here. You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource (see Christianpedia:Copyrights for details). Do not submit copyrighted work without permission! Cancel Editing help (opens in new window) Discuss this page