2016 United States presidential election Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.Anti-spam check. Do not fill this in! === Battleground states === [[File:Presidential Election Results Swing by State from 2012 to 2016.svg|thumb|300px|Vote margin swing by state [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]] to 2016. Only eleven states (as well as the District of Columbia and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district) shifted more Democratic. The [[2016 United States presidential election in Utah|large swing in Utah]] is mostly due to the votes for third-party candidate [[Evan McMullin]] and the 2012 candidacy of [[Mitt Romney]].]] Most [[News site|media outlets]] announced the beginning of the presidential race about twenty months prior to [[Election Day (United States)|Election Day]]. Soon after the first contestants declared their candidacy, [[Larry Sabato]] listed Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio as the seven states most likely to be contested in the [[Elections in the United States|general election]]. After Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination, many pundits felt that the major campaign locations might be different from what had originally been expected.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/31/politics/new-jersey-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/ |title=Poll: Clinton, Trump running tight race in NJ |last=LoBianco |first=Tom |date=May 31, 2016 |website=edition.cnn.com |publisher=[[CNN]]|access-date=September 30, 2016}}</ref> [[Rust Belt|Rust Belt states]] such as [[Pennsylvania]], [[Wisconsin]], and even [[Michigan]] were thought to be in play with Trump as the nominee, while states with large minority populations, such as [[Colorado]] and [[Virginia]], were expected to shift towards Clinton.<ref name="sabato">{{cite web |url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/ |title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball " The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters |website=www.centerforpolitics.org|date=March 31, 2016 |access-date=June 11, 2016}}</ref> By the conventions period and the debates, however, it did not seem as though the Rust Belt states could deliver a victory to Trump, as many of them were considered to be part of the "[[Blue wall (U.S. politics)|blue wall]]" of Democratic-leaning states. Trump's courting of the [[Polish-American vote]], a sizable number of whom were [[Reagan Democrat]]s, has been cited as the cause for the loss of the Rust Belt by the Democratic nominee.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://dziennikzwiazkowy.com/news-in-english/trump-wouldnt-win-without-polish-americans-an-interview-with-william-bill-ciosek/|title=Trump Wouldn't Win Without Polish-Americans. An Interview With William "Bill" Ciosek|date=November 21, 2016}}</ref> According to Politico<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-path-to-victory-224239 |title=Donald Trump's path to victory |newspaper=[[Politico]]|access-date=January 12, 2017}}</ref> and FiveThirtyEight, his path to victory went through states such as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and possibly Colorado.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/ |title=Clinton's Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win |date=September 22, 2016 |newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]] |language=en-US|access-date=January 12, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-paths-win-election-230766 |title=Three paths that deliver Trump the win |newspaper=[[Politico]]|access-date=January 12, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-electoral-college-polls-228249 |title=Trump cracks the Electoral College lock |newspaper=[[Politico]]|access-date=January 12, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trumps-incredible-shrinking-map-230135 |title=Trump's incredible shrinking map |newspaper=[[Politico]]|access-date=January 12, 2017}}</ref> [[Opinion poll|Early polling]] indicated a closer-than-usual race in former Democratic strongholds such as [[Washington (state)|Washington]], [[Delaware]], [[2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey|New Jersey]], [[2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut|Connecticut]], [[Maine]] (for the two statewide electoral votes), and [[New Mexico]].<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ct/ct06072016_Cvf63kbw.pdf/ |title=Clinton tops Trump in Connecticut race |last=Douglas |first=Schwartz |date=June 7, 2016 |access-date=January 27, 2017 |archive-date=February 2, 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170202035629/https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ct/ct06072016_Cvf63kbw.pdf/ |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_dd659ad4faf34206969d7dbef07995e2.pdf |title=Clinton can sweep Northeast |last=Kimball |first=Spencer |date=September 7, 2016 |access-date=January 27, 2017 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20160907/emerson-poll-finds-clintons-lead-over-trump-precariously-thin-in-ri |title=Emerson poll finds Clinton's lead over Trump precariously thin in R.I. |last=Gregg |first=Katherine |date=September 7, 2016 |website=www.providencejournal.com |access-date=September 30, 2016}}</ref> A consensus among [[pundit|political pundits]] developed throughout the [[primary elections in the United States|primary election]] season regarding swing states.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554 |title=The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict |website=Politico Magazine|date=May 3, 2015 |access-date=June 11, 2016}}</ref> From the results of presidential elections from [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]] through to [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]], the Democratic and Republican parties would generally start with a safe [[Red states and blue states|electoral vote count]] of about 150 to 200.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.270towin.com/ |title=2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map |website=270toWin.com |access-date=June 11, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/ |title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball " The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters |website=www.centerforpolitics.org |date=March 31, 2016 |access-date=June 11, 2016}}</ref> However, the [[2012 presidential election results|margins]] required to constitute a swing state are vague, and can vary between groups of analysts.<ref name="Levin">{{cite web |url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/21/utah-mormon-voters-anti-donald-trump-republican-caucuses |title=Why Mormons in America's most conservative state could turn a Trump stronghold questionably Democratic |last=Levin |first=Sam |date=March 21, 2016 |website=[[The Guardian]]|access-date=June 11, 2016}}</ref><ref name="Roche">{{cite web |url=http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865650513/Poll-Utah-would-vote-for-a-Democrat-for-president-over-Trump.html |title=Poll: Utah would vote for a Democrat for president over Trump |last=Roche |first=Lisa Riley |date=March 20, 2016 |website=DeseretNews.com|access-date=June 11, 2016}}</ref> It was thought that left-leaning states in the [[Rust Belt]] could become more [[Conservatism in the United States|conservative]], as Trump had strong appeal among many [[blue-collar worker]]s.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/ |title=The Great Republican Revolt |last=Frum |first=David |website=[[The Atlantic]] |date=December 22, 2015 |language=en-US|access-date=August 3, 2016}}</ref> They represent a large portion of the American populace and were a major factor in Trump's eventual [[Presidential nominee|nomination]]. Trump's primary campaign was propelled by victories in Democratic states, and his supporters often did not identify as Republican.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://rothenberggonzales.com/ratings/president/2016-presidential-ratings-august-19-2016 |title=Presidential Ratings {{!}} The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report|website=rothenberggonzales.com|access-date=November 6, 2016}}</ref> Media reports indicated that both candidates planned to concentrate on Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Haberman |first1=Maggie |title=Electoral Map Gives Donald Trump Few Places to Go |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us/politics/donald-trump-presidential-race.html |access-date=July 31, 2016 |work=[[The New York Times]] |date=July 30, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Challan |first1=David |title=Road to 270: CNN's new electoral college map |url=http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/20/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-2/index.html |publisher=[[CNN]] |access-date=July 31, 2016 |date=July 20, 2016}}</ref> Among the Republican-leaning states, potential Democratic targets included [[Nebraska's 2nd congressional district|Nebraska's second congressional district]], Georgia, and Arizona.<ref name="DBalz">{{cite news |last1=Balz |first1=Dan |title=The Republican Party's uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016 elections |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-gops-uphill-path-to-270-in-2016/2014/01/18/9404eb06-7fcf-11e3-93c1-0e888170b723_story.html |access-date=October 3, 2014 |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]] |date=January 18, 2014}}</ref> Trump's relatively poor polling in some traditionally Republican states, such as Utah, raised the possibility that they could vote for Clinton, despite easy wins there by recent [[Presidential nominee|Republican nominees]].<ref name="lvilla1">{{cite magazine |last1=Villa |first1=Lissandra |title=Why Utah Doesn't Like Donald Trump |url=http://time.com/4397192/donald-trump-utah-gary-johnson/ |access-date=July 18, 2016 |magazine=Time |date=July 10, 2016}}</ref> However, many analysts asserted that these states were not yet viable Democratic destinations.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228 |title=Hillary Clinton's path to victory|website=[[Politico]]|date=June 19, 2016 |access-date=August 3, 2016}}</ref><ref name="sabato2015predictions">{{cite news |url=https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554 |title=The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict |date=May 3, 2015 |publisher=[[Politico]] |last2=Skelley |first2=Geoffrey |last3=Sabato |first3=Larry |last1=Kondik |first1=Kyle |access-date=September 22, 2015}}</ref> Several sites and individuals publish electoral predictions. These generally rate the race by the likelihood for each party to win a state.<ref name="Congressional district method">{{cite news |url=https://www.vox.com/2014/11/8/7174945/electoral-college-rigging |title=A totally legal, totally shady way that Republicans could ensure Hillary Clinton's defeat |date=November 8, 2014 |publisher=[[Vox (website) | Vox]] |last1=Yglesias |first1=Matthew |access-date=November 8, 2014}}</ref> The "tossup" label is usually used to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate a party has a slight edge, "likely" to indicate a party has a clear but not overwhelming advantage, and "safe" to indicate a party has an advantage that cannot be overcome.<ref name="BDoherty">{{cite news |url=http://themonkeycage.org/2012/07/31/president-obamas-disproportionate-battleground-state-focus-started-early-echoed-predecessors-actions/ |title=President Obama's Disproportionate Battleground State Focus Started Early, Echoed Predecessors' Actions |date=July 31, 2012 |publisher=Monkey Cage |last1=Doherty |first1=Brendan |access-date=November 4, 2014}}</ref> As the parameters of the race established themselves, analysts converged on a narrower list of contested states, which were relatively similar to those of recent elections. On November 7, the [[Cook Political Report]] categorized Arizona, [[Colorado]], [[Florida]], [[Iowa]], Michigan, [[Nevada]], [[New Hampshire]], North Carolina, [[Ohio]], Pennsylvania, and [[Wisconsin]] as states with close races. Additionally, a district from each of Maine and Nebraska were considered to be coin flips.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard |title=Electoral Vote Scorecard |website=[[The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | The Cook Political Report]] |access-date=November 8, 2016 |archive-date=November 8, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161108003558/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard |url-status=dead }}</ref> Meanwhile, [[FiveThirtyEight]] listed twenty-two states as potentially competitive about a month before [[swing state|the election]]—Maine's two at-large electoral votes, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, [[Indiana]], Missouri, and Utah—as well as [[Maine's 2nd congressional district|Maine's second]] and [[Nebraska's 2nd congressional district|Nebraska's second]] congressional districts.<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-are-the-undecided-voters/ |title=Election Update: Where Are The Undecided Voters? |date=October 25, 2016 |newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]] |language=en-US|access-date=November 8, 2016}}</ref> [[Nate Silver]], the publication's editor-in-chief, subsequently removed Texas, South Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana from the list after the race tightened significantly.<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-state-of-the-states/ |title=Election Update: The State Of The States |date=November 7, 2016 |newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]] |language=en-US|access-date=November 25, 2016}}</ref> These conclusions were supported by [[Voter model|models]] such as the [[Princeton University|Princeton Elections Consortium]], the New York Times Upshot, and punditry evaluations from [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] and the [[The Cook Political Report|Cook Political Report]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/ |title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Our Final 2016 picks |website=www.centerforpolitics.org|date=November 7, 2016 |access-date=December 15, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=http://www.270towin.com/maps/fivethirtyeight-2016-polls-plus-forecast |title=FiveThirty Eight Polls Plus Forecast |newspaper=270toWin.com|access-date=December 15, 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard |title=Electoral Vote Scorecard |website=[[The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | The Cook Political Report]] |access-date=December 15, 2016 |archive-date=November 8, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161108003558/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.governing.com/topics/elections/gov-ratings-roundup-2016-statewide-elections.html |title=Ratings Roundup: 2016 Statewide Elections |website=www.governing.com|date=November 4, 2016 |access-date=December 15, 2016}}</ref> Hillary Clinton won states like [[2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico|New Mexico]] by less than 10 percentage points.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://electionresults.sos.state.nm.us/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY |title=New Mexico—Election Night Results |date=November 8, 2016 |website=New Mexico Secretary of State |language=en-US|access-date=February 8, 2017}}</ref> Among the states where the candidates finished at a margin of within seven percent, Clinton won Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Maine (2), Minnesota (10), and New Hampshire (4). On the other hand, Trump won Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Nebraska's second district (1), and Georgia (16). States won by Obama in the [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]], such as Ohio (18), Iowa (6), and Maine's second district (1), were also won by Trump. The close result in [[2016 United States presidential election in Maine|Maine]] was not expected by most commentators, nor were Trump's victory of over 10 points in the second district and their disparities.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-state-of-the-states/ |title=Election Update: The State Of The States |date=November 7, 2016 |newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]] |language=en-US|access-date=January 26, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=http://www.pressherald.com/2016/11/08/mainers-take-matters-into-their-own-hands-after-bitter-presidential-campaign/ |title=Trump takes 1 of Maine's 4 electoral votes, in a first for the state—The Portland Press Herald |date=November 8, 2016 |newspaper=The Portland Press Herald |language=en-US|access-date=January 26, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://bangordailynews.com/2016/11/09/politics/elections/clinton-leads-maine-but-trump-poised-to-take-one-electoral-vote/ |title=Clinton wins Maine, but Trump takes one electoral vote |last=Cousins |first=Christopher |website=The Bangor Daily News|date=November 9, 2016 |access-date=January 26, 2017}}</ref> The dramatic shift of [[American Midwest|Midwestern states]] towards Trump were contrasted in the media against the relative movement of [[Southern United States|Southern states]] towards the [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democrats]].<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-maybe-its-time-for-ohio-and-pennsylvania-to-part-ways/ |title=Election Update: Maybe It's Time For Ohio And Pennsylvania To Part Ways |date=October 5, 2016 |newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]] |language=en-US|access-date=January 26, 2017}}</ref> For example, former Democratic strongholds such as [[Minnesota]] and [[Maine]] leaned towards the [[Republican Party (United States)|GOP]] while still voting Democratic, albeit by smaller margins. Meanwhile, Iowa voted more Republican than Texas did, Georgia was more Democratic than Ohio, and the margin of victory for Trump was greater in North Carolina than Arizona.<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ |title=The Real Story Of 2016 |date=January 19, 2017 |newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]] |language=en-US|access-date=January 26, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ |title=Ohio Was A Bellwether After All |date=January 25, 2017 |newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]] |language=en-US|access-date=January 26, 2017}}</ref> Trump's smaller victories in [[Alaska]] and [[Utah]] also took some experts by surprise.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/mike-pence-utah-republicans-mcmullin-230273 |title=Pence to make late campaign visit to Utah |newspaper=[[Politico]]|access-date=January 26, 2017}}</ref> Summary: Please note that all contributions to Christianpedia may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. 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