2016 United States presidential election

=== Statistical analysis ===
The 2016 election was the fifth and most recent presidential election in which the [[List of United States presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote|winning candidate lost the popular vote]].<ref name=e2016/><ref name=trumped/> Six states plus a portion of Maine that Obama won in 2012 switched to Trump (Electoral College votes in parentheses): Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and Maine's second congressional district (1). Initially, Trump won exactly 100 more Electoral College votes than Mitt Romney had in 2012, with two lost to [[faithless electors]] in the final tally. Thirty-nine states swung more Republican compared to the previous presidential election, while eleven states and the District of Columbia swung more Democratic.<ref name="LeipAtlas2016PrezResults"/> Based on [[United States Census Bureau]] estimates of the voting age population (VAP), turnout of voters casting a vote for president was nearly 1% higher than in 2012. Examining overall turnout in the [[2016 United States elections|2016 election]], the University of Florida's [[Michael P. McDonald|Michael McDonald]] estimated that 138.8 million Americans cast a ballot. Considering a VAP of 250.6 million people and a voting-eligible population (VEP) of 230.6 million people, this is a turnout rate of 55.4% VAP and 60.2% VEP.<ref name="US Elections Project">{{citation |url=http://www.electproject.org/2016g |title=2016 November General Election Turnout Rates |work=[[United States Elections Project]] |access-date=December 17, 2016}}</ref> Based on this estimate, voter turnout was up compared to 2012 (54.1% VAP) but down compared to 2008 (57.4% VAP). An FEC report of the election recorded an official total of 136.7 million votes cast for President—more than any prior election.<ref name=" turnout"/> 

By losing New York, Trump became the fourth and most recent victorious candidate to lose his home state, which also occurred in 1844, 1916, and 1968. And along with [[James Polk]] in 1844, Trump is one of two victorious presidential nominees to win without either their home state or birth state (in this case, both were New York). Data scientist Hamdan Azhar noted the paradoxes of the 2016 outcome, saying that "chief among them [was] the discrepancy between the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won by 2.8 million votes, and the electoral college, where Trump won 304-227." He said Trump outperformed Mitt Romney's 2012 results, while Clinton only just matched Barack Obama's 2012 totals. Hamdan also said Trump was "the highest vote earner of any Republican candidate ever", exceeding [[George W. Bush]]'s 62.04 million votes in 2004, though neither reached Clinton's 65.9 million, nor Obama's 69.5 million votes in 2008. He concluded, with help from ''The Cook Political Report'', that the election hinged not on Clinton's large 2.8 million overall vote margin over Trump, but rather on about 78,000 votes from only three counties in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.<ref name="AzharForbes12292016">{{cite news |last=Azhar |first=Hamdan |date=December 29, 2016 |title=2016 Vs. 2012: How Trump's Win And Clinton's Votes Stack Up To Romney And Obama |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/12/29/2016-vs-2012-how-trumps-win-and-clintons-votes-stack-up-to-obama-and-romney |url-access=subscription |work=[[Forbes]] |location=New York City |access-date=February 4, 2018}}</ref> Clinton was the first former Secretary of State to be nominated by a major political party since [[James G. Blaine]] in [[1884 United States presidential election|1884]].

This is the first and only election since 1988 in which the Republican nominee won the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the first since 1984 in which they won Wisconsin. It was the first time since 1988 that the Republicans won Maine's second congressional district and the first time since George W. Bush's victory in New Hampshire in 2000 that they won any electoral votes in the Northeast. This marked the first time that Maine split its electoral votes since it began awarding them based on congressional districts in 1972, and the first time the state split its electoral vote since 1828. The 2016 election marked the eighth consecutive presidential election where the victorious [[Two-party system#United States|major party]] nominee did not receive a [[List of United States presidential elections by popular vote margin|popular vote majority by a double-digit margin]] over the losing major party nominee(s), with the sequence of presidential elections from [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]] through 2016 surpassing the sequence from [[1876 United States presidential election|1876]] through [[1900 United States presidential election|1900]] to become the longest sequence of such presidential elections in U.S. history.<ref>{{cite news|last=Chinni|first=Dante|title=Are close presidential elections the new normal?|date=December 6, 2020|work=[[NBC News]]|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/are-close-presidential-elections-new-normal-n1250147|access-date=December 21, 2020}}</ref><ref name="Williams 2012 pp. 1539–1570">{{cite journal|last=Williams|first=Norman R.|title=Why the National Popular Vote Compact is Unconstitutional|year=2012|journal=[[BYU Law Review]]|publisher=[[J. Reuben Clark Law School]]|volume=2012|issue=5|pages=1539–1570|url=https://digitalcommons.law.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2686&context=lawreview|access-date=October 14, 2020}}</ref> It was also the sixth presidential election in which both major party candidates were registered in the same home state; the others have been in [[1860 United States presidential election|1860]], [[1904 United States presidential election|1904]], [[1920 United States presidential election|1920]], [[1940 United States presidential election|1940]], and [[1944 United States presidential election|1944]]. It was also the first election since [[1928 United States presidential election|1928]] that the Republicans won without having either [[Richard Nixon]] or one of the [[Bush family|Bushes]] on the ticket.

Trump was the first president with neither prior public service nor military experience. This election was the first since 1908 where neither candidate was currently serving in public office. This was the first election since 1980 where a Republican was elected without carrying every former Confederate state in the process, as Trump lost Virginia in this election.{{efn|In 1980, Democrat Jimmy Carter carried his home state of Georgia despite losing the election.}} Trump became the only Republican to earn more than 300 electoral votes since the 1988 election and the only Republican to win a Northeastern state since George W. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000. This was the first time since 1976 that a Republican presidential candidate lost a pledged vote via a faithless elector and additionally, this was the first time since 1972 that the winning presidential candidate lost an electoral vote. With ballot access to the entire national electorate, Johnson received nearly 4.5 million votes (3.27%), the highest nationwide vote share for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1996, while Stein received almost 1.45 million votes (1.06%), the most for a Green nominee since Ralph Nader in 2000. Johnson received the highest ever share of the vote for a Libertarian nominee, surpassing Ed Clark's 1980 result.<ref name="Third-Party-Share">{{Cite news|last=Coleman|first=J. Miles|title=Why 2020's Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016|date=May 14, 2020|work=Sabato's Crystal Ball|url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/why-2020s-third-party-share-should-be-lower-than-2016/|access-date=May 28, 2023}}</ref>

Independent candidate Evan McMullin, who appeared on the ballot in eleven states, received over 732,000 votes (0.53%). He won 21.4% of the vote in his home state of Utah, the highest share of the vote for a third-party candidate in any state since 1992. Despite dropping out of the election following his defeat in the Democratic primary, Senator Bernie Sanders received 5.7% of the vote in his home state of Vermont, the highest write-in draft campaign percentage for a presidential candidate in American history. Johnson and McMullin were the first third-party candidates since Nader to receive at least 5% of the vote in one or more states, with Johnson crossing the mark in nine states and McMullin crossing it in two.<ref name="Third-Party-Share"/> Trump became the oldest non-incumbent candidate elected president, besting Ronald Reagan in 1980, although this would be surpassed by Joe Biden in the next election.

Of the 3,153 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, Trump won the most popular votes in 2,649 (84.02%) while Clinton carried 504 (15.98%).{{citation needed|date=March 2024}}