George W. Bush

==== Economic policy ====
{{Main|Economic policy of the George W. Bush administration}}

Bush took office during a period of economic recession in the wake of the bursting of the [[dot-com bubble]].<ref>Roger Lowenstein (2004), ''Origins of the Crash: The Great Bubble and Its Undoing'', Penguin Books, {{ISBN|978-1-59420-003-8}} pp. 114–115</ref> The September 11 terrorist attacks also [[Economic effects of the September 11 attacks|impacted the economy]].

His administration increased federal [[government spending]] from $1.789{{nbs}}trillion to $2.983{{nbs}}trillion (60 percent), while revenues increased from $2.025{{nbs}}trillion to $2.524{{nbs}}trillion (from 2000 to 2008). Individual income tax revenues increased by 14 percent, corporate tax revenues by 50 percent, and customs and duties by 40 percent. Discretionary defense spending was increased by 107 percent, discretionary domestic spending by 62 percent, Medicare spending by 131 percent, social security by 51 percent, and income security spending by 130 percent. Cyclically adjusted, revenues rose by 35 percent and spending by 65 percent.<ref>[http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10871/appendixf.shtml Historical Budget Data] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120205054450/http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10871/AppendixF.shtml |date=February 5, 2012 }}, Congressional Budget Office, Tables F-1, F-3, F-7, F-9, and F-12.</ref> The increase in spending was more than under any predecessor since [[Lyndon B. Johnson]].<ref>[http://mercatus.org/uploadedFiles/Mercatus/WP0904_GAP_Spending%20Under%20President%20George%20W%20Bush.pdf Spending Under President George W. Bush] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120425034211/http://mercatus.org/uploadedFiles/Mercatus/WP0904_GAP_Spending%20Under%20President%20George%20W%20Bush.pdf |date=April 25, 2012 }}, Veronique de Rugy, [[Mercatus Center]], George Mason University, Mar 2009, Table 2</ref> The number of [[economic regulation]] governmental workers increased by 91,196.<ref name="bushregulation">{{cite web |title=Bush's Regulatory Kiss-Off – Obama's assertions to the contrary, the 43rd president was the biggest regulator since Nixon |url=http://www.reason.com/news/show/130328.html |work=Reason |date=January 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090902085717/http://www.reason.com/news/show/130328.html |archive-date=September 2, 2009 |access-date=May 13, 2012 }}</ref>

The surplus in fiscal year 2000 was $237{{nbs}}billion{{snd}}the third consecutive surplus and the largest surplus ever.<ref name=omb>Office of Management! and Budget; National Economic Council, September 27, 2000</ref> In 2001, Bush's budget estimated that there would be a $5.6{{nbs}}trillion surplus over the next ten years.<ref>{{cite book|url=http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy02/pdf/blueprnt.pdf|title=A Blueprint for New Beginnings: A Responsible Budget for America's Priorities|last=Bush|first=George W.|publisher=Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the President |year=2001 |isbn=0-16-050683-2 |location=Washington |oclc=46346977|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20041018020541/http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy02/pdf/blueprnt.pdf|archive-date=October 18, 2004}}</ref> Facing congressional opposition, Bush held town hall-style meetings across the U.S. to increase public support for his plan for a $1.35{{nbs}}trillion [[Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001|tax cut program]], one of the largest tax cuts in U.S. history.<ref name=msn /> Bush argued that unspent government funds should be returned to taxpayers, saying "the surplus is not the government's money. The surplus is the people's money."<ref name=msn /> Federal Reserve chairman [[Alan Greenspan]] warned of a recession and Bush stated that a tax cut would stimulate the economy and create jobs.<ref>{{cite news |first=Kelly |last=Wallace |title=$1.35 trillion tax cut becomes law |url=http://edition.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/06/07/bush.taxes/ |publisher=CNN |date=June 7, 2001 |access-date=June 30, 2006 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060515081611/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/06/07/bush.taxes/ |archive-date=May 15, 2006}}</ref> Treasury Secretary [[Paul H. O'Neill]], opposed some of the tax cuts on the basis that they would contribute to budget deficits and undermine [[Social Security (United States)|Social Security]].<ref>{{cite news |title=CBS Interviews Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill |url=http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5510.htm |access-date=September 1, 2008 |archive-date=May 15, 2006 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060515081611/http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5510.htm }}</ref> O'Neill disputes the claim, made in Bush's book ''Decision Points'', that he never openly disagreed with him on planned tax cuts.<ref>{{cite news |title=O'Neill Says He 'Clearly' Disagreed With Bush Tax Cuts |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2010/12/06/VI2010120604011.html |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=December 6, 2010 |access-date=December 12, 2010 |archive-date=January 31, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110131185030/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2010/12/06/VI2010120604011.html |url-status=live }}</ref> By 2003, the economy showed signs of improvement, though job growth remained stagnant.<ref name=msn /> [[Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003|Another tax cut]] was passed that year.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6621 | title=Tax Policy Under President Bush | publisher=Cato Institute | access-date=July 7, 2023 | archive-date=May 30, 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230530003442/http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6621 | url-status=live }}</ref>

Between 2001 and 2008, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.125 percent,<ref>{{cite web |title=Gross Domestic Product |url=https://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&910=X&911=0&903=1&904=2001&905=2008&906=A |publisher=Bureau of Economic Analysis |date=July 31, 2013 |access-date=August 1, 2013 |archive-date=November 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131105050641/http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&910=X&911=0&903=1&904=2001&905=2008&906=A |url-status=live }}</ref> less than for past business cycles.<ref name="Price & Ratner">{{cite web |url=http://www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/entry/webfeatures_snapshots_20051026/ |last1=Price |first1=L. |last2=Ratner |first2=D. |date=October 26, 2005 |title=Economy pays price for Bush's tax cuts |access-date=June 23, 2009 |archive-date=May 15, 2006 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060515081611/http://www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/entry/webfeatures_snapshots_20051026/ }}</ref> Bush entered office with the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]] at 10,587, and the average peaked in October 2007 at over 14,000. When Bush left office, the average was at 7,949, one of the lowest levels of his presidency.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI |title=Historical Prices for Dow Jones Industrial Average |publisher=[[Yahoo! Finance]] |archive-date=October 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131005212821/https://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI |url-status=live }}</ref> Only four other U.S. presidents have left office with the stock market lower than when they began.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://money.com/money/5140978/a-100-year-curse-on-gop-presidents-might-explain-why-stocks-are-tumbling/|title=A 100-Year Curse on GOP Presidents Might Explain Why Stocks Are Tumbling|last=Lim|first=Paul J.|date=February 9, 2018|work=Money|access-date=November 23, 2019|archive-date=December 2, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191202131125/http://money.com/money/5140978/a-100-year-curse-on-gop-presidents-might-explain-why-stocks-are-tumbling/|url-status=live}}</ref>

[[File:Deficits vs. Debt Increases - 2009.png|thumb|upright=1.35|[[United States federal budget|Deficit]] and [[United States public debt|debt]] increases from 2001 to 2009. Gross debt increased over $500{{nbs}}billion each year after the 2003 fiscal year.]]

Unemployment originally rose from 4.2 percent in January 2001 to 6.3 percent in June 2003, but subsequently dropped to 4.5 percent in July 2007.<ref>{{cite web |access-date=September 1, 2008 |url=http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm |title=Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey |publisher=[[United States Department of Labor]] |archive-date=October 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131005212821/http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> Adjusted for inflation, [[median household income]] dropped by $1,175 between 2000 and 2007,<ref>{{cite news |title=Middle class: 'On the edge' |url=https://money.cnn.com/2008/07/23/news/economy/middle_class/index.htm |publisher=CNN |first=Tami |last=Luhby |date=July 24, 2008 |access-date=July 24, 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130914045319/http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/23/news/economy/middle_class/index.htm |archive-date=September 14, 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref> while Professor Ken Homa of [[Georgetown University]] has noted that "Median real after-tax household income went up two percent".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2008/08/28/from-clinton-to-bush-after-tax-household-income-is-up/ |title=From Clinton to Bush, after-tax household income is up! |publisher=The Homa Files |first=Ken |last=Homa |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130919071931/http://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2008/08/28/from-clinton-to-bush-after-tax-household-income-is-up/ |url-status=live |archive-date=September 19, 2013 |date=August 28, 2008 }}</ref> The poverty rate increased from 11.3 percent in 2000 to 12.3 percent in 2006 after peaking at 12.7 percent in 2004.<ref>{{cite web |title=Historical Poverty Timeline |url=https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/people.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070103080222/http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html |archive-date=January 3, 2007 |publisher=[[United States Census]] |access-date=December 31, 2006 }}</ref> By October 2008, due to increases in spending,<ref name="greenburg">{{Cite book|title=Supreme Conflict: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Control of the United States Supreme Court|last=Greenburg|first=Jan C.|publisher=Penguin |year=2007|isbn=978-0-14-311304-1|location=New York|oclc=166382420|url-access=registration|url=https://archive.org/details/supremeconflicti00janc}}</ref>{{Rp|273}} the [[National debt of the United States|national debt]] had risen to $11.3{{nbs}}trillion,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.sbscpagroup.com/blog/debt-nation-post-two/|title=Debt nation, post two|last=Sylvester|first=Mike|date=October 13, 2008|website=Small Business Services CPA Group|language=en-US|access-date=November 20, 2019|archive-date=January 14, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160114012300/http://www.sbscpagroup.com/blog/debt-nation-post-two/|url-status=dead}}</ref> more than doubling it since 2000.<ref>{{cite web |title=Revenues, Outlays, Surpluses, Deficits, and Debt Held by the Public, 1962 to 2006 |publisher=[[Congressional Budget Office]] |access-date=September 1, 2008 |url=http://www.cbo.gov/budget/historical.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070628072448/http://www.cbo.gov/budget/historical.pdf |archive-date=June 28, 2007 }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/sep/02/spending-and-the-national-debt/ |title=Spending and the National Debt |access-date=September 1, 2008 |date=September 2, 2007 |work=The Washington Times |archive-date=October 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131005212821/http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/sep/02/spending-and-the-national-debt }}</ref>{{unreliable source?|date=May 2020}} Most debt was accumulated as a result of what became known as the "[[Bush tax cuts]]" and increased national security spending.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=909 |last1=Fiedler |first2=R. |last2=Kogan |date=December 13, 2006 |title=From Surplus to Deficit: Legislation Enacted Over the Last Six Years Has Raised the Debt by $2.3 Trillion |access-date=November 10, 2007 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131005212821/http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=909 |archive-date=October 5, 2013 }}</ref> In March 2006, then-Senator [[Barack Obama]] said when he voted against raising the [[United States debt ceiling|debt ceiling]]: "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure."<ref>{{cite news|url=http://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2011/04/saying-no-to-raising-the-debt-ceiling.html|title=Saying 'no' to raising the debt ceiling|last=Zorn|first=Eric|date=April 11, 2011|newspaper=[[Chicago Tribune]]|access-date=November 23, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131005212821/http://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2011/04/saying-no-to-raising-the-debt-ceiling.html|archive-date=October 5, 2013|issn=2165-171X}}</ref> By the end of Bush's presidency, unemployment climbed to 7.2 percent.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092009.htm|title=The Employment Situation: December 2008|date=January 9, 2009|website=Bureau of Labor Statistics|publisher=[[United States Department of Labor]]|access-date=November 23, 2019|archive-date=December 2, 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191202132741/https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092009.htm|url-status=live}}</ref>