Lagos

=== Climate change ===
A 2019 paper published in [[PLOS One]] estimated that under [[Representative Concentration Pathway#4.5|Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5]], a "moderate" scenario of [[climate change]] where global warming reaches ~{{convert|2.5-3|C-change|F-change}} by 2100, the climate of Lagos in the year 2050 would most closely resemble the current climate of [[Panama City]]. The annual temperature would increase by {{convert|1.6|C-change|F-change}} and the temperature of the warmest month by {{convert|1.5|C-change|F-change}}, while the temperature of the coldest month would be {{convert|2.9|C-change|F-change}} higher.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bastin |first1=Jean-Francois |last2=Clark |first2=Emily |last3=Elliott |first3=Thomas |last4=Hart |first4=Simon |last5=van den Hoogen |first5=Johan |last6=Hordijk |first6=Iris |last7=Ma |first7=Haozhi |last8=Majumder |first8=Sabiha |last9=Manoli |first9=Gabriele |last10=Maschler |first10=Julia |last11=Mo |first11=Lidong |last12=Routh |first12=Devin |last13=Yu |first13=Kailiang |last14=Zohner |first14=Constantin M. |last15=Thomas W. |first15=Crowther |title=Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues |journal=PLOS ONE |date=10 July 2019 |volume=14 |issue=7 |at=S2 Table. Summary statistics of the global analysis of city analogues. |doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0217592 |pmid=31291249 |pmc=6619606 |bibcode=2019PLoSO..1417592B |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://crowtherlab.pageflow.io/cities-of-the-future-visualizing-climate-change-to-inspire-action |title=Cities of the future: visualizing climate change to inspire action |at=Current vs. future cities |access-date=8 January 2023 |archive-date=8 January 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230108082440/https://crowtherlab.pageflow.io/cities-of-the-future-visualizing-climate-change-to-inspire-action |url-status=live }}</ref> According to [[Climate Action Tracker]], the current warming trajectory appears consistent with {{convert|2.7|C-change|F-change}}, which closely matches RCP 4.5.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/ |title=The CAT Thermometer |access-date=8 January 2023 |archive-date=14 April 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190414131223/https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

Moreover, according to the 2022 [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]], Lagos is one of 12 major African cities ([[Abidjan]], [[Alexandria]], [[Algiers]], [[Cape Town]], [[Casablanca]], [[Dakar]], [[Dar es Salaam]], [[Durban]], Lagos, [[Lomé]], [[Luanda]] and [[Maputo]]) that would be the most severely affected by [[sea level rise]]. It estimates that they would collectively sustain cumulative damage of US$65 billion under RCP 4.5 and US$86.5 billion in the high-emission scenario RCP 8.5 by the year 2050. Additionally RCP 8.5 combined with the hypothetical impact from [[marine ice sheet instability]] at high levels of warming would involve up to US$137.5 billion in damage, while the additional accounting for the "low-probability, high-damage events" may increase aggregate risks to US$187 billion for the "moderate" RCP4.5, US$206 billion for RCP8.5 and US$397 billion under the high-end ice sheet instability scenario.<ref>Trisos, C.H., I.O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N.P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen 2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf Chapter 9: Africa] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221206082533/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf |date=6 December 2022 }}. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220228114918/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ |date=28 February 2022 }} [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke,V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2043–2121</ref> Since sea level rise would continue for about 10,000 years under every scenario of climate change, future costs of sea level rise would only increase, especially without adaptation measures.<ref>{{cite book |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf |title=Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |date=August 2021 |publisher=IPCC |page=TS14 |access-date=12 November 2021 |archive-date=13 August 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210813201719/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref>